The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), a critical artery for Kazakhstan’s oil exports, is facing sustained disruption after drone attacks near its Black Sea export terminal cut July oil loadings by more than a fifth.
CPC loadings fell to around 1.2–1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, according to sources familiar with the data cited by Reuters. That represents roughly 400,000 bpd of crude that did not reach international markets during the month. The consortium's pipeline transports crude from Kazakhstan across more than 1,500 kilometres through Russia to the port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea.
The impact has continued into August. CPC Blend loadings have averaged only about 1.1–1.2 million bpd so far this month, suggesting that the disruption has not been limited to isolated incidents. Operations at the terminal have been repeatedly interrupted since mid-July, with loading suspensions continuing even after brief resumptions.
A pipeline caught in a wider conflict
The disruption is particularly significant because CPC is responsible for around 2% of global oil supply and is by far Kazakhstan's most important export route. Kazakhstan typically moves between 1.5 million and 1.7 million bpd through the system, leaving the country with few alternative routes capable of replacing the lost volumes at short notice.
The latest problems follow attacks involving oil tankers and infrastructure around the Novorossiysk terminal. Russia has accused Ukrainian forces of targeting oil tankers during loading operations and attempting to destabilise global oil markets. Ukraine has intensified strikes on Russian energy infrastructure but has not claimed responsibility for the attacks on the CPC facilities, which primarily handle Kazakh crude.
The security concerns have also created a second problem: shipowners are becoming reluctant to serve the terminal. Reuters reported that some operators have suspended activity in the region, while traders have struggled to secure tankers for CPC Blend cargoes. This means that even when the pipeline itself is capable of delivering crude, getting that oil onto vessels and into international markets can remain difficult.
Kazakhstan feels the impact
The disruption is already reaching upstream production.
Kazakhstan's oil output fell by 14% in July compared with June, according to sources cited by Reuters. With storage and alternative export capacity limited, prolonged problems at the CPC terminal can leave producers with little choice but to reduce production when crude cannot be moved efficiently to market.
Some producers are now looking for alternatives. Tengizchevroil, one of Kazakhstan's major oil producers, plans to move about 100,000 tonnes of crude by rail to Georgia's Black Sea port of Batumi in August. However, rail cannot easily replicate the scale of the CPC system, making it more of a temporary outlet than a replacement for the pipeline.
The disruption is also affecting the value of Kazakhstan's crude. CPC Blend cargoes for August were reportedly being offered at nearly $4 per barrel below dated Brent, compared with a premium only weeks earlier, reflecting the growing risk and uncertainty surrounding deliveries.
More than a pipeline problem
The CPC disruption illustrates how a single piece of energy infrastructure can become a pressure point for an entire supply chain.
The vulnerability extends beyond the pipeline itself: export terminals, tankers, ports, power systems and surrounding infrastructure all have to remain operational for crude to reach the global market. When one link is disrupted, the consequences can quickly move upstream to producers and downstream to traders and consumers.
For Kazakhstan, the episode is a reminder of the risks created by heavy dependence on a single export corridor. For the wider oil industry, it highlights a growing challenge: energy infrastructure is increasingly becoming exposed to geopolitical and security risks far beyond traditional pipeline threats.
With CPC operations still facing interruptions in August, the key question is no longer simply when the pipeline can resume normal flows, but how resilient the wider export system can be when its most important route comes under sustained pressure.
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